Major League Baseball released its proposal last week for changes in their annual amateur draft for domestic and international players. Going forward, the emphasis will be on college players, as well as formalizing the selection process for international players.

In my opinion, the changes are pretty drastic. I believe MLB’s major motivation is to lower its cost of acquiring and developing players, while improving the quality, who reach the majors. In the process, MLB will become more dependent on college baseball, to the point where I believe it will reduce its own minor-league system.

The highlights of the proposed changes include:

• High school players will no longer be eligible for the draft
• Drafted players must be 20 years old on September 1.
• College players will be eligible after their sophomore year
• An international player draft will be instituted
• The number of draft rounds will be reduced from 20 to 12.
• Caps will be placed on the dollars allocated to signing bonuses for drafted players.

MLB released strikingly revealing stats about the current state of the draft selection process and its results.

75 percent of domestic major-league players were developed through college baseball, 88 percent of whom were not ranked in high school.

Since 2023, 82 college players have reached the big leagues within two years of being drafted, more than 2016-2022 combined.

75 percent of high school signees do not make the majors.

College players represent 81 percent of drafted players annually.

83 percent of international signing bonuses go to players who did not reach the majors.

More than 1,000 international players are released every year.

Only 6 percent of international signings currently reach the majors, while 44 percent of international players signed are released within three years.

62 percent of signed international players were 14 or younger when they stopped attending school.

From the above statistics, it becomes apparent that MLB spends significant money and resources on a lot of prospects, both domestic and international, for which they don’t get a decent return on investment. Increased dependence of college prospects will help solve that problem.

While MLB says it will not change the number of minor-league teams (currently 120), it seems obvious that their lowest level of 30 teams (Low-Single A) won’t be necessary. However, I’m of the opinion that the college baseball system, which now has significant investments in coaching, facilities, and player development, supplants the need for that level. In effect, MLB will shift the cost of player development for that level to the colleges. Who knows? The High-Single A level may eventually not be needed either, leaving the minor-league system with only Triple-A and Double-A levels necessary to refine player skills for the big leagues.

Of course, the MLB Players Association believes these changes are bad for the game, because they potentially affect the player compensation and number of eligible players.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

Note: MLB.com’s article https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-domestic-and-international-draft-proposals is the source for the proposed changes and statistics cited in this piece. The opinions expressed are my own.